The Numbers Game
Insights
Information is all over the place, almost too much data
The power isn’t in the data, but the insights you pull out it
Much tougher than it seems.
Truth > Beliefs
Bill James quote: what is true is more powerful than what you believe
Good quote to explain why you should be data driven or evidence driven
Dogs that don’t bark
Tackles are a poor way to evaluate defenders
It’s about being in the right position, so you don’t have to make a tackle
Best defenders are dogs that don’t bark
What doesn’t happen
Pay attention to what doesn’t happen
It’s more important to not concede a goal than it is to score a goal
Avoid turnovers
Avoiding turnovers is important to success
Passing percentages are useful, but avoiding turnovers is more important
David vs Goliath
Gladwell on David vs Goliath: underdogs need to acknowledge their weakness, and adapt or they’ll die
Goliath doesn’t need to try something unconventional. Underdogs like David do.
Failure
Failure is often only accepted if you do it in a recognizable way
If it’s unconventional, more criticism for failure
It’s safe to fail in a conventional manner
Weakest link
Success in soccer is more about the weakest link, avoiding what you do badly
In basketball, one player makes up 20% of players on the court for you team
In soccer, it’s just 9% - there are superstars, but better to pay attention to a team’s weakest link
O-Ring Theory
One small manufacturing part can be a multi-million dollar disaster
Pay attention to the details, and to your weakest link
Köhler effect
When a person works harder as a member of a group than when working alone
Example from a seamstress lab where they stop paying by individual and start paying by group, and it helps produce more fabric/clothes
Same is true in sports
Problems
Is it a tough problem, or the same problem every year?
Measure of success is that you’re making progress, not the same problem over and over
New Tactics
Organizational: only two paths, either your more innovative or spend more money
The game is decided in the margins, where light and dark meet
Future of Tactics
A team of 150 people (organization) is the future of tactics
Example is how teams are tracking players in space, their every movements, especially when they don’t have the ball
Practice
The apprenticed is a quite distinct person from the anointed
A violinist asked how many hours I should practice, and his mentor said, ‘It doesn’t really matter how long. If you practice with your fingers, no amount is enough. If you practice with your head, two hours is plenty.’
Quotes
We play leftist soccer, everyone does everything - Pep
There are two routes to success in soccer, we have found. One is being good. The other is being lucky. You need both to win a championship
The great tragedy of science, the slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact
The ball is round, so that the game can change direction
Success is determined not just by what you do well but what you don’t do badly.
The idea that sacking managers is a panacea for a team’s ills is a placebo. It is an expensive illusion
2 strategies for better soccer: either being more efficient or being more innovative than your opponents
Both efficiency and innovation should bring more attention to the darker, defensive side of the pitch